Greater Manchester goes to the polls on Thursday 30th July to choose a new mayor, following Andy Burnham's departure from the role after winning the Makerfield by-election and becoming Prime Minister. Seven candidates are standing, but based on YouGov's polling, four are in serious contention. Here's what each of them is promising.
Bev Craig (Labour and Co-operative) – Polling First
Bev Craig, leader of Manchester City Council since 2021, is Labour's candidate and the clear frontrunner, with a YouGov poll putting her on 38% of first preferences, 14 points clear of any other candidate.
Her manifesto, "Delivering a Greater Manchester for Us," centres on affordability and continuity with Burnham's record. Key pledges include freezing Bee Network bus and Metrolink fares beyond December, extending free travel to everyone aged 11 to 18, and lifting the 9:30am restriction on concessionary travel for disabled and older residents. On housing, she has promised 50,000 new council and genuinely affordable homes by 2039, including purchasing and refurbishing 10,000 existing homes alongside building 10,000 new ones. She has also pledged a £10 million community ownership fund, a £20 million Good Growth High Street Fund for small businesses, expanded neighbourhood policing, a new Neighbourhood Guarantee to tackle antisocial behaviour, and a "Youth Promise" including baby boxes and a youth centre in every town.
Sian Astley (Reform UK) – Polling Second
Sian Astley, a Manchester City Council ward member and self-described landlord and TV presenter, is Reform UK's candidate, polling second on 24%.
Her manifesto promises to reverse what the party describes as a 44% increase in the mayoral precept by cutting spending on diversity, equality and inclusion programmes, environmental initiatives and cycle lane infrastructure. On policing, she has pledged to create what she calls the "toughest police force in Britain," with increased stop and search, tougher enforcement against shoplifting and drug offences, and a dedicated unit to investigate historic child sexual exploitation cases, alongside publishing grooming gang files where legally possible. She has also promised to reduce houses in multiple occupation used to house asylum seekers, and to invest more evenly across Greater Manchester's boroughs rather than concentrating growth in the city centre.
Geraldine Coggins (Green Party) – Polling Third
Geraldine Coggins, a Trafford councillor and leader of the Green group there, is running third in YouGov's polling on 17%.
Her manifesto, "Hope for Greater Manchester," pledges 20,000 genuinely affordable, publicly owned homes over a decade through a new body called Homes for Greater Manchester, buying and refurbishing 10,000 existing homes while building 10,000 new ones. She has also promised to lobby Westminster for rent controls, free bus travel for everyone under 22, a new network of high-frequency orbital "Bee Orbit" bus routes linking outer boroughs, extending the Metrolink's Didsbury line into Stockport, and a £10 million fund to help communities bring empty high street shops back into use. On policing, she has pledged to double funding for the Violence Reduction Unit and prioritise tackling violence against women and girls.
Marlon West (Restore Britain) – Polling Fourth
Marlon West, a former mental health nurse turned grooming gangs campaigner, is standing for Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain party, polling fourth on 7%.
West became a prominent campaigner after his daughter, Scarlett, was targeted and abused by grooming gangs in Rochdale and across Greater Manchester; the pair later published a book about their experience, "In Plain Sight." He played a central role in an independent inquiry into grooming gang abuse, working alongside fellow campaigner Sammy Woodhouse. His campaign has centred heavily on child protection and institutional accountability, alongside broader pledges to attract business investment, cut wasteful spending, protect greenfield land, and overhaul transport across the region.
How the Vote Works
The election uses the Supplementary Vote system, reinstated for English mayoral elections in April 2026 after being scrapped by the previous Conservative government in 2022, meaning voters can select a first and second choice candidate. If no candidate wins an outright majority of first preferences, the top two go through to a second round in which second-preference votes for eliminated candidates are redistributed. YouGov's model projects Craig would beat Astley comfortably in that scenario, by 62% to 38%.
The same poll found strong approval for Burnham's record as mayor: 66% of Greater Mancunians think he did a good job, against just 21% who think he did poorly, with majority approval even among 2024 Conservative voters. By 44% to 31%, residents also tend to think he was right to step down early and return to Westminster rather than serve out his term to 2028.
** Polling figures are from a YouGov survey of 2,200 people in Greater Manchester, using the company's Looped Stratified Simulation (LSS) election model, published 17th July 2026: https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/55197-greater-manchester-2026-mayoral-by-election-voting-intention