Typical non-pensioner household incomes are forecast to fall by £1,050, or 3%, between 2026–27 and 2028–29 despite the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget, according to a new Resolution Foundation assessment published on 29 October 2026.
The independent think tank’s report, Spread Thin, examines the Budget delivered the previous day. Its forecasts point to a sustained squeeze on working-age household living standards, although the £1,050 figure is a projection, not an income loss already recorded.
Cost-of-living support criticised
The Foundation says the £4.4 billion cost-of-living package is poorly targeted. It estimates the poorer half of households will gain £158 on average from the measures, compared with £144 for the richer half — a difference of only £14. It argues that help should be directed more effectively towards those most exposed to higher bills.
Energy bills remain under pressure
The think tank forecasts typical household energy bills, after support, of about £1,750 in 2026–27, higher in real terms than the £1,685 recorded during the 2022–23 energy shock. The Government’s measures provide temporary relief but do not eliminate the wider pressure from energy costs.
Government borrowing costs rise
The report projects debt interest spending of £147 billion in 2029–30, £13 billion more than forecast in March. It estimates that the Budget leaves £14.5 billion of headroom against the current balance rule, around 62% of the amount available in March. The Foundation warns that this leaves little room for further economic shocks.
Housing support freeze raises concerns
The decision to extend the freeze on Local Housing Allowance into 2027–28 will leave more than one million private-renting families worse off than otherwise, the Foundation estimates. It says 91% of those affected are in the poorer half of the income distribution.
A difficult outlook for living standards
The report also projects that child poverty will fall by 2.6 percentage points across this Parliament, acknowledging a more mixed picture than the headline income forecast alone suggests. The Government has introduced temporary household support against a backdrop of higher global energy prices and borrowing costs. However, the Foundation argues that more targeted support and stronger fiscal buffers are needed. Its projections are not proof that the Budget alone caused the expected income decline.