Britain could fall approximately £412 million short of its reduced overseas aid spending target in 2027 unless ministers adjust planned funding, according to new analysis published ahead of the Budget.
Researchers at the Center for Global Development (CGD) examined existing spending plans alongside economic forecasts and concluded that planned official development assistance (ODA) could amount to just under 0.29% of gross national income (GNI), below the Government's 0.3% commitment.
The warning is a forecast, not evidence that the Government has already missed its target. The final result will depend on economic growth, inflation, the allocation of funds and actual spending in 2027.
What the new research found
In an analysis published on 25 October, CGD researchers Ian Mitchell and Kate Mannering estimated a central shortfall of around £412 million against the Government's 0.3% of GNI target. Their calculations also suggest a shortfall of approximately £250 million in a lower-growth scenario and £580 million in a higher-growth scenario.
Those results may appear counterintuitive: stronger nominal economic growth can increase the cash amount needed to reach a target expressed as a percentage of national income, even when spending plans remain fixed.
CGD says existing plans imply aid spending of roughly £9.4 billion to £9.5 billion in 2027. It argues the Treasury may need to provide additional resources if the Government intends to meet its stated percentage target.
Why the aid target was reduced
The Government announced in February 2025 that it would reduce UK overseas aid spending from approximately 0.5% of GNI to 0.3% by 2027, with the savings intended to support increased defence expenditure.
A House of Commons Library briefing published in August 2026 said the planned 0.3% level would be the lowest proportion of national income spent on aid since 1999. The briefing also noted the Government's stated intention to return to the 0.7% target when fiscal circumstances allow.
The CGD researchers argue that the forthcoming Budget offers ministers an opportunity to adjust the settlement before the 2027 spending year. Their assessment is independent research and should not be confused with an official Treasury forecast.
What official figures show
Provisional Government statistics show UK official development assistance totalled £13.036 billion in 2025, equivalent to 0.43% of GNI, compared with 0.50% in 2024. Those historical figures describe actual spending and are separate from CGD's projection for 2027.
Ministers have argued that a fixed departmental settlement provides greater certainty for aid programmes, while critics have raised concerns about the impact of reductions on development and humanitarian assistance.
Budget decision still to come
The research does not establish that the Treasury has rejected additional funding, or that any future spending target has been breached. The amount required could change as forecasts and departmental spending evolve.
Attention will now turn to Wednesday's Budget to see whether ministers provide additional resources, revise their plans or leave the existing allocations unchanged.