Former Labour prime minister Gordon Brown has said that Ireland will eventually be united, intervening in one of the United Kingdom's most sensitive constitutional debates just days after Prime Minister Andy Burnham declared that a referendum on Irish unity was “off the table”.
Brown, who served as Chancellor when the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement was signed in 1998 and as Prime Minister when policing and justice powers were devolved to Northern Ireland in 2010, made the comments in an interview with the Guardian.
Asked whether Northern Ireland's geographical connection with the Republic meant that uniting Ireland made sense, Brown replied: “Yes. Well, of course, in the long term, Ireland will be united.”
He immediately qualified the prediction, saying reunification would be a long process in which people would have to come together and reach agreement.
Brown predicts Irish unity
Brown's comments amount to a prediction about Ireland's long-term constitutional future rather than a call for an immediate referendum.
He did not suggest that a border poll was imminent or that the legal conditions for one had already been met.
Instead, the former prime minister argued that Northern Ireland occupies a different geographical position from Scotland when considering the future of the United Kingdom.
Brown remains firmly opposed to Scottish independence, arguing that Scotland is geographically, economically, socially and culturally connected to the rest of the UK.
When challenged that the same geographical reasoning could be applied to Northern Ireland's relationship with the Republic, he said that in the long term Ireland would be united.
Comments come after Burnham's ‘off the table’ declaration
The timing is politically significant because Brown's intervention follows a row triggered by Andy Burnham during his first official visit to Northern Ireland as Prime Minister.
Asked about the prospect of a referendum on Irish unity, Burnham said: “some issues will be off the table, and that is one issue that will be off the table.”
Burnham argued that Northern Ireland should instead focus on immediate issues including cost-of-living pressures, the budget and public services.
He also pointed to the divisions created by the Brexit referendum and Scotland's 2014 independence referendum, saying political rifts caused by such votes could take a long time to heal.
Downing Street moved to clarify Burnham's remarks
Burnham's wording generated criticism because the circumstances in which a border poll must be held are governed by the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement settlement and the Northern Ireland Act 1998.
Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Bryant subsequently said Burnham had been referring to the situation “now” and insisted that the Government remained fully committed to every part of the Good Friday Agreement.
Bryant said the Prime Minister had not made a mistake in his remarks, but the clarification narrowed the apparent scope of Burnham's original declaration.
What the law actually says
Under Schedule 1 of the Northern Ireland Act 1998, the Secretary of State has the power to order a poll on Northern Ireland's constitutional status.
More importantly, the legislation says the Secretary of State must exercise that power if it appears likely that a majority of those voting would wish Northern Ireland to cease being part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland.
The legislation therefore means that no UK government can simply remove the possibility of a border poll permanently while the existing statutory framework remains in force.
There is, however, considerable political debate over what evidence would demonstrate that a majority for constitutional change was likely.
Sinn Féin criticised Burnham while DUP welcomed remarks
Burnham's intervention produced sharply contrasting reactions from Northern Ireland's main constitutional traditions.
Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald argued that no prime minister had the right to remove the provision for a unity referendum from the Good Friday Agreement.
DUP leader Gavin Robinson took the opposite view, welcoming Burnham's remarks and saying the Prime Minister had put speculation about a border poll to bed.
Those reactions reflected the fundamental disagreement between nationalist and unionist parties over Northern Ireland's long-term constitutional future.
Brown played significant role during peace process era
Brown's intervention carries additional weight because of his senior position in government during crucial stages of the Northern Ireland peace process.
He was Chancellor of the Exchequer under Tony Blair when the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement was reached in 1998.
Brown later became Prime Minister in 2007, remaining in Downing Street until 2010.
During his premiership, policing and justice powers were devolved to Northern Ireland's power-sharing institutions following the Hillsborough Castle Agreement, marking another important stage in the development of the post-1998 settlement.
His comments do not represent Labour Government policy today. Brown left frontline parliamentary politics in 2015 and is speaking as a former prime minister.
Unionist on Scotland — but predicts unity for Ireland
The contrast with Brown's position on Scotland makes his comments particularly striking.
Brown was one of the most prominent Labour voices campaigning to keep Scotland within the United Kingdom during the 2014 independence referendum and continues to reject Scottish independence.
In the same interview in which he predicted Irish unity, Brown argued that independence would not be the right way forward for Scotland.
His position is therefore not an endorsement of the break-up of the United Kingdom as a general principle. Instead, Brown is arguing that the particular circumstances of Northern Ireland make eventual Irish unity likely.
A constitutional argument Burnham cannot simply close
Brown's intervention underlines the difficulty facing Burnham after his attempt to remove a border poll from the immediate political agenda.
The Prime Minister can make clear that his Government does not currently believe the conditions for a referendum have been met and can argue that other issues should take priority.
But the statutory mechanism for a future vote remains in place, and the Northern Ireland Secretary would have a legal duty to call one if the threshold established by the 1998 Act were judged to have been reached.
Brown has now gone considerably further than the current Government by predicting that the long-term destination will ultimately be a united Ireland.
Coming from a former Labour prime minister who was directly involved in government throughout much of the peace-process era, the remarks ensure that the constitutional question Burnham attempted to put “off the table” remains firmly in political view.