MPs have urged the Government to protect the independence of the Office for Budget Responsibility and resist blaming the fiscal watchdog when ministers face difficult tax and spending decisions.
In a new report published on Wednesday, the House of Commons Treasury Committee rejected calls for immediate fundamental reform of the OBR's position or independence, while recommending that the organisation introduce an additional 10-year economic forecast.
The proposed longer-term forecast would sit alongside the OBR's existing five-year forecast and would not be used to assess whether the Government is meeting its current fiscal rules.
Committee warns against 'blaming the messenger'
The Treasury Committee said the UK's constrained public finances make an independent fiscal voice particularly important.
MPs concluded that calls for reform have often been driven by a desire to create additional spending capacity, but argued that changing the forecaster or its forecasts is a poor substitute for developing coherent economic policies and making difficult decisions over public money.
The committee said policymakers should resist the temptation to blame the OBR when its forecasts leave governments facing politically difficult choices.
MPs recommend new 10-year forecast
Despite rejecting fundamental changes to the OBR's independence, the committee backed a significant addition to the watchdog's forecasting work.
It recommended that the OBR produce a new medium-term 10-year forecast in addition to its existing five-year forecast.
The committee heard evidence from Professor Douglas Elmendorf, a former director of the US Congressional Budget Office, supporting a longer forecast period. MPs said a 10-year outlook could help governments demonstrate where investment or policy changes may produce benefits beyond the current five-year horizon.
The committee acknowledged that forecasts become increasingly uncertain further into the future. It nevertheless concluded that a longer outlook could encourage greater consideration of the country's overall fiscal position and the longer-term consequences of policy.
Crucially, the proposed 10-year forecast would have no bearing on the Government's current fiscal rules, which would continue to be assessed using the five-year forecast.
Hillier: OBR does not have a 'stranglehold' on Treasury
Treasury Committee chair Dame Meg Hillier rejected suggestions that the OBR exercises excessive power over ministers and Treasury officials.
She said the significance of OBR forecasts increases when government spending operates with very limited fiscal headroom, arguing that this reflects decisions made by chancellors rather than overreach by the watchdog.
Hillier said there was merit in examining the potential longer-term effects of government policies and the future path of the economy, despite the additional uncertainty involved.
She also called for the new Chancellor and the wider Government to make clear that the OBR's independent voice should be preserved.
Call for Parliament to debate long-term fiscal risks
The committee has also asked the Government to provide parliamentary time for MPs to debate the OBR's Fiscal Risks and Sustainability report.
That report examines much longer-term pressures on the public finances, including projections extending over 50 years.
The committee said giving the document dedicated parliamentary attention would encourage greater consideration of the UK's longer-term fiscal position rather than concentrating solely on the immediate constraints surrounding individual Budgets and fiscal events.
OBR independence
The Office for Budget Responsibility was established in 2010 to provide independent analysis of the UK's public finances. Its work includes producing economic and fiscal forecasts and assessing the Government's performance against its fiscal targets.
The Treasury Committee's report, The Office for Budget Responsibility: Time for change?, follows an inquiry opened in December 2025. The Government's formal response to the report is due by 23 November 2026.