Consumer confidence in the UK fell sharply in October, recording its largest monthly decline since the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic, according to new figures from the GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer powered by NIM.
The headline index dropped 11 points, from -13 in September to -24 in October 2026, reversing the improvement seen over the summer. The figures were released on Friday, 23 October, ahead of the government's Budget scheduled for 28 October.
Confidence weakens across key measures
The survey found that expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months fell by 14 points to -36. The major purchase index, which gauges whether people consider it a good time to buy expensive items such as furniture and electrical goods, also fell 14 points to -22.
Views of the general economic situation over the past year declined by 12 points to -48. The measure of personal finances over the past 12 months fell seven points to -10, while expectations for personal finances over the coming year dropped eight points to -3.
The separate savings index increased one point to +28. That measure is not included in the overall confidence index.
Cost-of-living pressures
GfK said there was no single event behind the deterioration. Its analysis pointed to sustained pressure on household budgets, inflation and international instability as possible contributing factors. The research organisation said the fall was evident across income, age and gender groups.
Reuters reported that the 11-point decline was the largest since April 2020. Outside the pandemic period, the last comparable fall followed the 2016 Brexit referendum.
Implications ahead of the Budget
The decline comes as the government prepares its next Budget and as retailers approach the Christmas trading period. A weaker reading for major purchases may signal greater caution among shoppers, although the survey measures attitudes rather than actual spending.
The research was conducted among 2,003 UK residents aged 16 and over between 1 and 14 October. The publisher states an estimated margin of error of approximately two percentage points.
Source: GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer powered by NIM — October 2026 press release. Additional reporting: Reuters, 23 October 2026.
Editorial note: Consumer confidence is a survey-based measure of sentiment. It does not establish that the UK is in recession, that actual spending has fallen by 11%, or that government policy alone caused the change.