Polling expert Sir John Curtice has warned Prime Minister Andy Burnham that calling an early General Election could prove a major gamble — and could even leave Reform UK as the largest party in the House of Commons.
Curtice's intervention comes amid growing Westminster speculation over whether Burnham could seek a fresh mandate before Christmas.
According to The Independent, Curtice said an early contest would remain highly unpredictable despite a recent weakening in Reform UK's polling position, because Britain's increasingly fragmented party system makes the outcome under first-past-the-post difficult to forecast.
Reform could still emerge largest party
Curtice warned that Labour should not assume an early election would translate into a comfortable victory simply because support for Reform has softened from previous highs.
With votes now spread more widely between Labour, the Conservatives, Reform UK, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and nationalist parties, relatively small shifts in support could have a significant impact on the number of seats each party wins.
That means an election called in an attempt to secure Burnham his own mandate could instead produce a highly uncertain parliamentary result.
One possibility raised by Curtice is that Reform UK could emerge as the largest party even without winning a majority of the national vote.
Speculation over an election continues
The warning follows comments from TUC General Secretary Paul Nowak, who suggested Burnham could eventually decide that Labour's 2024 manifesto did not give him sufficient scope to pursue his own programme in government.
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has also publicly joined the speculation, saying she believes Burnham wants to call a General Election.
Badenoch has argued that Labour already has a large parliamentary majority and questioned why the Prime Minister would need to seek another mandate unless he wanted authority for policies which were not put to voters at the 2024 election.
No election has been announced
There is currently no confirmation from Downing Street that Burnham is preparing to call an early General Election.
The Prime Minister has previously rejected suggestions that he intends to go to the country early and has indicated that he intends to work from Labour's existing mandate.
Curtice's comments therefore represent an assessment of the electoral risks Burnham would face if he did decide to call an election, rather than evidence that a decision has already been taken.
Nevertheless, the intervention of one of Britain's best-known polling experts adds further weight to the political debate over whether Burnham should seek his own mandate — and underlines the potential consequences if he does.