Labour would emerge as the largest party but fall well short of an overall majority if a General Election were held now, according to YouGov's first Westminster MRP since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister.
The model's central estimate puts Labour on 241 seats, the Conservatives on 130 and Reform UK on 123, producing a hung Parliament.
The Liberal Democrats are projected to win 71 seats, the SNP 40, Plaid Cymru 15 and the Greens nine.
Labour 85 seats short of an overall majority
Labour's projected 241 seats would leave it 85 short of the 326 normally required for an overall Commons majority.
It would also represent a loss of 170 seats compared with the 411 Labour won at the 2024 General Election. However, it is a substantial improvement on YouGov's September 2025 MRP, which projected Labour on 144 seats.
Conservatives and Reform almost level
The Conservatives are projected to win 130 seats, compared with 123 for Reform UK.
That is a significant change from YouGov's equivalent model last September, when Reform was projected on 311 seats and the Conservatives on 45.
Three-way contest remains close on vote share
YouGov's central vote-share estimate gives Labour 24%, Reform UK 22% and the Conservatives 21%, with the Liberal Democrats and Greens both on 12%.
The figures illustrate how the geographical distribution of support can produce substantial differences in seats despite relatively small gaps in national vote share.
More than a third of seats decided by five points or less
YouGov says 234 constituencies, or 37% of seats in its model, are decided by margins of five percentage points or less.
The uncertainty is particularly pronounced for Reform UK, with 67% of its projected wins decided by margins of five points or less.
Major changes projected in Wales and Scotland
In Scotland, Labour is projected to win seven Westminster seats while the SNP takes 40. In Wales, Labour is projected to retain two seats, with Plaid Cymru on 15 and Reform UK on 14.
Labour performs more strongly in England, where the central estimate gives it 232 seats, including relatively strong performances in London and Greater Manchester.
Snapshot, not an election forecast
The MRP uses data from nearly 17,000 Britons collected between 23 August and 18 September 2026.
It estimates how constituencies might vote if a General Election were held now. It is not a prediction of the eventual result of the next election, and voting intentions can change substantially before polling day.
YouGov's model produces a range of possible outcomes. Even Labour's upper-end estimate of 274 seats remains below an overall majority.