A major new YouGov seat-by-seat projection suggests Britain would have a hung Parliament if a General Election were held now, with Labour remaining the largest party but losing its Commons majority.
YouGov's first Westminster MRP since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister gives Labour 241 seats in its central estimate, with the Conservatives on 130 and Reform UK on 123.
The Liberal Democrats are projected to win 71 seats, the SNP 40, Plaid Cymru 15 and the Greens nine.
Labour 85 seats short of a majority
Labour's projected 241 seats would leave the party 85 short of the 326 required for an overall majority and represent a net loss of 170 seats compared with the 411 it won at the 2024 General Election.
However, the result would also represent a substantial recovery from YouGov's MRP a year ago, when Labour under Keir Starmer was projected to win just 144 seats and Reform UK was within reach of an overall majority.
YouGov's latest model gives Labour a plausible range of between 197 and 274 seats. Even the upper end of that range would leave the party 52 seats short of an overall majority.
Reform and Conservatives closely matched
The central projection puts the Conservatives narrowly ahead of Reform UK in seats, with 130 compared with Reform's 123.
That represents a dramatic change from YouGov's September 2025 MRP, which projected Reform winning 311 constituencies.
YouGov says Reform's plausible range in the latest model runs from 86 to 166 seats, while the Conservatives range from 105 to 150.
The national vote shares are much closer than the seat totals suggest. YouGov's central estimate gives Labour 24 per cent of the vote, Reform 22 per cent and the Conservatives 21 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats and Greens both on 12 per cent.
Nearly 17,000 people surveyed
The MRP is based on fieldwork among nearly 17,000 Britons conducted between August 23 and September 18.
YouGov also highlights the volatility of the current electoral landscape, with 37 per cent of constituencies decided by margins of five percentage points or less in its central estimate.
Fresh context for snap election speculation
The projection comes amid continuing political speculation over whether Burnham could seek his own electoral mandate by calling an early General Election.
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has said she believes an election could come as soon as December, while Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey has confirmed his party has begun preparing its next manifesto earlier than usual so it is ready if an election is called.
There has been no announcement from Burnham or Downing Street that an early General Election will take place.
The YouGov model therefore provides a snapshot of how the electorate might currently vote rather than evidence that an election is imminent or a prediction of the eventual result of the next General Election.